Evolutsia.Net

Caucasus Watch is a biweekly roundup focusing on the region’s major stories. The project is led by Analyst Remy Gwaramadze with support from the entire Evolutsia.Net team. The next issue of Caucasus Watch will be published on January 31st.

In this issue, Evolutsia.Net asks whether or not President Saakashvili’s proposed ‘military-patriotic’ classes are hitting the right notes. Is this just another case of skewed priorities, or is something more nefarious afoot? Also in Georgia, the Mukhrovani trial has come to an end, and with some interesting results. Less interesting was the turnout for the Batumi energy conference, except for a highly ambitious plan to build an LNG terminal. Further afield, Azerbaijan continues to showcase its turn away from Europe, making the already-complicated Caucasus even more so. And speaking of chaos, the headache over Georgia’s unaccredited election monitors in Ukraine turns nasty as a suspicious conversation between Saakashvili and Ukrainian Prime Minister/oligarch Tymoshenko surfaces.

All after the jump.

In this issue:

- Military Patriotic Classes in Georgian Schools
- Mukhrovani Trial Verdicts Announced
- Georgia Plans to build LNG Production Plant
- Chaos in Nakhchevan
- Wiretapping Controversy on the Eve of Ukraine Presidential Elections

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Military Patriotic Classes in Georgian Schools
by Inge Snip

Kiev | Although Evolutsia.Net has traditionally given Saakashvili the benefit of the doubt, it seems that lately he has drifted away from the ‘enlightened’ and democratic path he has so strongly espoused in the past. His recent proposal to implement patriotic-military classes in schools can only be understood as a step backwards and smacks a bit too strongly of the beloved premium boss-man Vladimir Putin’s state indoctrination regime.

On January 12, during a televised meeting with schoolchildren and their teachers in Batumi, Saakashvili presented one of his new ideas to strengthen the Georgian nation – one that would be capable of defense against any aggressive neighbor.

“This system is being created in Georgia that will enable us to involve each and every person in defending the country. Only 16,000, 20,000, or 30,000 of our soldiers will not able to defend a country with population of 5 million; defending of the country with population of 5 million is a matter of all these 5 million people, as well as of the Georgians living abroad,” said the president [1].

According to the president, the main goal of the classes would be to replace ‘ignorance’ with patriotism. His plan was backed by several officials a few days later, explaining that the military-patriotic education would entail training in “civil defense, stimulating soldierly spirit and military history” and, according to Georgian Defense Minister Bacho Akhalaia, it would give the students a chance to learn “the basics of military discipline, major armament, the structures of armed forces, and even the handling of weapons.” When Akhalaia rose to the post of defense minister, he promised to do a fundamental reform of the Georgian military during his tenure – this was not what we had in mind.

Your correspondent is curious to know how this government got the ideas that: 1) shooting a gun is something the government should teach children; and, 2) Georgian people are ignorant. To start with the latter, anyone knowing Georgians and having the opportunity to know Georgian culture has experienced the pride and protectiveness of many Georgians towards their country and their values. The claim that the Georgian people are ignorant of such virtues is a strange one to make, unless the government hopes to stoke the fires of Gamsakhurdia-era nationalism – a path best left alone. Secondly, unless the Georgian military intends to conscript children into the military – which it absolutely should not, of course – weapons training for youth is a curiously illogical step.

However, some might argue that Georgia is a small country; that it has an aggressive neighbor and that it should therefore take all measures to be able to defend itself. While Georgia certainly requires a worthy defense, it’s difficult to understand how these classes will contribute to that defense. For instance, the fact that these children are going being taught ‘heroic’ stories to ‘make them proud’ of their home-country is too reminiscent of the same blunt indoctrination-dictatorial tactics that have been used by some of history’s most noxious regimes, including Georgia’s erstwhile imperial overlord, Russia. While there is much to be desired in Georgian education, the most pressing issue is certainly not a dearth of patriotic fervor; if anything, Georgian students might benefit from a little more nuance about Georgia’s checkered history in the early-to-mid1990s.

Your correspondent genuinely thinks that classes like this are a major step backwards. Moreover, it will definitely not benefit the relationship with Russia. If anything, in a geopolitical environment that apparently rewards abandoning Georgia, Georgia should be keener on buttressing its democratic credentials and deepening its level of political development. To this end, the idea of military patriotic classes creates problems that extend both to domestic and international affairs and should die a quiet, swift death.

[1] http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=21875

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Mukhrovani Trial Verdicts Announced
by Remy Gwaramadze

Warsaw | The so-called ‘Mukhrovani trial’ has finally come to an end. On May 5 of last year, during the peak of the opposition protests in Tbilisi, military forces stationed at the Mukhrovani army base (consisting mostly of armored forces) plotted and began a coup to overthrow the country’s legal authorities, but was busted at the very beginning of the plan’s implementation. On January 11, judge Jemal Kopaliani delivered severe verdicts for retired army colonel Koba Otanadze, former rangers battalion commander Levan Amiridze, and Mukhrovani tank battalion commander Shota Gorgiashvili; 29, 28, and 19 years in prison, respectively. Zurab Bzishvili, a tank crew member, got 9 years.

Kakha Kobaidze and Davit Sulkhanishvili, then-commanders of brigades in Kutaisi and Gori, had refused to take part in the mutiny but refrained from reporting the affair. They received relatively mild sentences of 3 conditional years  each in prison and few thousand lari. Zurab Chalatashvili, a former helicopter pilot of Alekseevka air base faced a similar verdict, 3 years in prison for not reporting his knowledge of the crime. The rest of the verdict went to a group of 12 civilians who allegedly assisted the coup – their conviction ranged from 9 to 15 years in prison. Another one, Zaza Sandodze, who probably just accidentally heard a little bit too much but didn’t want to sell off his relative, Koba Otanadze, earned 2 years imprisonment [1].

Severe verdicts, especially for the main 3 organizers and dozen of civilians, is a warning signal for the army and other national services that treason will not be tolerated. This signal is particularly important given current destabilizing transitional state in the country with still-smoldering political crises and the just-like-yesterday lost war with Russia. Despite Russia’s once heavily-implied role in Mukhrovani mutiny, no confirmation was found in the trial. Those allegations could have been muffled away for several reasons. It may be simply untrue, and had been used to help lower support for the ongoing massive opposition protests in Tbilisi. The other reason may refer to the current strategically important drive for a basic, technical settlement of Georgian-Russian relations. Better relations with Russia, more restrained rhetoric and technical issues like open borders and airlinks are in direct proportion to improvement of investment credibility in the eyes of pragmatic (and somewhat opportunistic) Western entrepreneurs, not to mention Western European governments. And, finally, of course, Russia’s involvement was not on trial here: the defendants listed above were.

Another interesting part of the Mukhrovani case is the clearing of coup charges for retired general Koba Kobaladze. He was found guilty of illegal firearms possession and sentenced for 8 months, but that’s the term which he already has served since the imprisonment in May, so he was immediately set free. It may be a first serious sign of the judiciary system’s independence from vast governmental influence. Even the pro-opposition Georgian International Media Centre seemed surprised with the news of Kobaladze’s release, whose alleged guilt has been constantly underlined by Mikheil Saakashvili himself [2]. Is the Georgian ruling elite scoring some extra democracy points by ‘easing the leash?’ Once eased it may never shorten back and even small steps forward are steps forward.

[1] http://civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=21869
[2] http://georgiamediacentre.com/content/mukhrovani_verdict_sees_misha_fail_get_his_man

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Georgia Plans to build LNG Production Plant
by Remy Gwaramadze

Warsaw | Disappointing. On January 14, Batumi was supposed to host international summit with a dozen heads of states, but instead ended up with a small conference with a handful of various state ministers. First one to pull out was Victor Yushchenko, probably too absorbed by his impending, certain election loss. According to Georgian PM Nika Gilauri, who represented Georgia at the event, Yushchenko’s forced absence caused a cascade of substitutions that brought the summit way down to the optimistically-described “top-level energy conference.” The proper summit has been postponed to an as yet-unnamed future date [1].

Besides some nodding chat about importance of Nabucco, White Stream and the South Corridor diversification route as such, one indeed interesting jewel issue has been raised. Nika Gilauri officially announced Georgia’s plans to build a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production plant somewhere on Adjara’s Black Sea coast. The plant would process phase two gas from the rich Azerbaijani Shah Deniz fields [2] and delivered by a Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline spur, which is also to be created alongside the existing Baku-Supsa oil corridor.

The LNG gas market is considered to be more expensive but is rapidly growing due to it’s maximum flexibility and convenience for every party from gas producers through LNG hubs (such as Georgia intends to be) to recipients. Selling/buying LNG is based on dynamic short-term deals and no receiver is stuck with one supplier, heavily dependent on the stranglehold of pipeline infrastructure.

Georgia’s entrance into the LNG market is an exciting challenge and could generate serious prestige, considering the desired scale of production of 30 billion cubic meters a year. For comparison, it is just 1 bcm less than the perpetually-embattled Nabucco project. But as mentioned before, nothing is clear, and it is far from certain that this LNG production plant will be built. To be fair, with the high expense of such a plant and Georgia’s investment reliability under serious strain from a number of factors, not the least being last year’s war, the whole project needs more than words for it to generate the critical mass of buzz and cash to make it a reality.

[1] http://en.trend.az/capital/pengineering/1617737.html
http://en.trend.az/capital/pengineering/1618927.html
[2] http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9CgCdV6MHdw

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Chaos in Nakhchivan
by Remy Gwaramadze

Warsaw | On December 28, some seriously disturbing events followed the Islamic Holy Day of Ashura celebrations in the village of Bananyar in Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. According to RFE/RL, [1] which quoted Asef Guliev from the opposition’s APF party, trouble began after the controversial ritual of self-lashing, when several villagers were arrested and beaten at police station of nearby Abragunus. One of the abducted, Kyamal Aliyev, 66, had reportedly been undressed and tied to a tree while being beaten. After arriving, Yunis Aliyev, the son of detained, poured gasoline over himself and threatened to light it if his father was not released. Encouraged by police, so did so.

When news about it spread, Bananyar residents marched towards the police station and staged regular protests. This triggered the police to impose full-scale control over the village. The terrorizing of inhabitants intensified on January 5, when approximately 500 men from Nakhchivan internal security entered the scene. It’s reported that since then, all houses, shops, and other services in the village were ransacked, some of them completely destroyed, and up to 150 people have been detained to an unknown location. According to a few who were released, beside regular beating they were being dragged outside and continually doused with cold water. The main objective of such “interrogations” was to obtain testimonies to implicate the head of the local (opposition party) APF office, Rza Nuriyev, with charges of staging anti-governmental protests [2]. In the meantime, Nakhchivan’s ministry of interior continues to report that nothing extraordinary is happening in the region.

Every information coming from Bananyar is based on whispered rumors. Telephone lines are suspected to be under surveillance. The area is virtually cut off from the outside world and remains under de facto martial law. On January 13, representatives of US and Norwegian embassies attempted to enter Bananyar, but their car was halted by unknown group at the outskirts and forced to return [3]. It’s not even clear what happened to Yunis Aliyev after he had been extinguished. One version says that he died in local hospital, the other that his family managed to get him out of “the zone” and he is now being treated in Tabriz, Iran.

As Azerbaijan is a secular state, religion is considered by the autocratic government as a source of potential instability and opposition. Well indeed, this is instability, but its source comes not from religion, but rather from state-sponsored atrocities combined with the total impunity of the local authority apparatus. The disastrous social conditions of Nakhchivan, like a lot other Azerbaijani regions, is another byproduct of the curse of the hydrocarbon mono-economy in Azerbaijan as it continues its relentless free fall into repression.

[1] http://www.azadliq.org/content/article/1922284.html
[2] http://www.azadliq.org/content/article/1923220.html
[3] http://www.azadliq.org/content/article/1929181.html

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Wiretapping Controversy on the Eve of Ukraine Presidential Elections
by Remy Gwaramadze

Warsaw | An odd brawl has risen over the approximately 2,000 Georgian observers that were denied registration at  the Ukrainian Central Election Commision. Russian state television is peddling stories about ‘Georgian thugs’ that came to eastern Ukraine (the mostly pro-Russian region) to disrupt the electoral process in favor of some unknown candidate. Who this candidate was became clear on Friday 15th when Russian news service RIA Novosti published [1] one ugly leak – a mysterious phone call [2] allegedly between Yulia Tymoshenko and Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili.

The tape contains a friendly conversation of man and woman of strikingly similar voices to these of Saakashvili and Tymoshenko. They talk about Georgian election observers and their problems to obtain official status. She [Tymoshenko] assures the interlocutor that everything is done in order to grant their legal status “without voting,” bearing in mind the CEC voting process to accredit observers. The man [Saakashvili] then states the efforts being put forward by Georgia in order to help Ukraine and that the people sent there are the most “competent and battle-ready” (RIA Novosti mistranslated it as “tested and battle-ready”). The press services of both Yulia Tymoshenko and Mikheil Saakashvili refused to comment on the tape’s authenticity.

The alleged conversation took place on Tuesday, the day after CEC’ refusal in registering Georgian observers. Since Wednesday, Ukrainian courts of first and second instances started intensive work. By the end of the week, verdicts were issued obligating the CEC to grant observer status to all Georgians. None of this however happened, because CEC members managed to depart to their regions, no quorum could be formed in Kyiv, hence no decisions issued. In the meantime, the Georgians have registered as media representatives. In case of necessary second round of elections, which is very likely, the first CEC meeting will grant Georgians their observer status. Altough by the time of publication, at least 4 Georgians have been arrested in Donetsk for various disturbances around polling areas [3].

How and why in the world did Georgia manage to take the frontline role in this comedy? The ugliest bit about this story is how RIA Novosti got a hold of the wiretapped conversation, if it is indeed authentic. It was handed over by Dmitry Vydrin, the deputy secretary of National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, and the former political science lecturer to Mikheil Saakashvili during his studies in Kyiv. It’s unclear where did he get the tape from in the first place, but he announced that the authenticity of the tape will be examined by Security Service of Ukraine and General Prosecution office [4]. Days before the elections, Vydrin hands over an alleged tape to a news agency based in another country, and only after that does the tape go to his native security services.

It seems Ukraine’s political chaos and Georgian toughs in Donetsk are somehow mutually complementary.

[1] http://www.rian.ru/politics/20100115/204630041.html
[2] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zweUkvJE64M
[3] http://www.rian.ru/incidents/20100117/204932089.html
[4] http://www.rian.ru/politics/20100115/204652966.html